Hegseth faces an impeachment vote this week, and the Republicans who lost the midterms over Iran may be the ones who pass it

The US House of Representatives is heading towards a vote to impeach Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth this week, as Republicans who lost control of Congress in last Tuesday’s midterm elections turn on the man many of them blame for the Iran war.

Thomas Massie, the outgoing Republican congressman from Kentucky, says he will force the vote now that lawmakers are back in Washington for the first time since the election. Multiple Republican sources have said they expect it to pass, with enough defections from their own side to join the Democrats.

Massie has given Hegseth a single exit. He has said there is only one circumstance in which he will not bring back his articles of impeachment: if Hegseth resigns. He has also urged Trump, if he plans to replace appointees such as Hegseth, to act while the current Senate can still confirm a successor.

The vote would come in the final weeks of the current Congress, before Democrats take over the House in January.

Why are Republicans turning on him now?

Republicans suffered heavy losses in the midterms, and many voters named the Iran war and its effect on the cost of living as a reason. Some in the party now blame Hegseth for persuading Trump to go to war without a plan to end it.

Others are less sure. French Hill, a Republican from Arkansas, said on Sunday he wanted to hear the debate “to see if it merits impeachment versus some other disciplinary action”. He said he was not satisfied with how the war had been handled, but that poor performance did not on its own amount to an impeachable offence, and that whether Hegseth stays was a question for the president.

Massie’s resolution contains eight articles of impeachment centred on the conduct of the war.

What do Hegseth and Trump say?

Hegseth has dismissed the effort as political theatre. In a video posted on X last week he called the articles a “sham” brought by a “disgruntled, defeated congressman”.

“Didn’t work against President Trump, and it won’t work with me,” he said.

Trump has stood by him. Asked about Hegseth last week, he said his defence secretary was doing a “fantastic job”. Trump has acknowledged the war may have cost Republicans votes but said he would do it again, and he has said he is not considering replacing Hegseth. People in the White House have said Trump wants him to fight the impeachment.

Where do the Democrats stand?

Democrats are expected to vote for the resolution. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Friday that Hegseth had to go but stopped short of backing impeachment. By Sunday he had moved, saying in a US television interview that he was “a hard yes” on Massie’s resolution.

Could Hegseth actually lose his job?

Not through this vote alone. If the House impeaches him, the Senate must hold a trial, and conviction needs two-thirds of senators. Even Trump’s allies concede Democrats would be well short of that number, even after the midterms.

The real pressure is political. An impeachment would make Hegseth the face of the war Republicans believe cost them Congress, and would hand the new Democratic majority a ready-made case when it takes over the committees in January. Trump’s choice is between standing by Hegseth through a trial or replacing him while a Republican Senate can still confirm a successor.

Why does it matter to Australia?

The Iran war has reshaped oil prices, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and the cost of fuel in Australia. Anthony Albanese has said he will raise the war with Trump at the Quad meeting on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Manila. Who runs the Pentagon, and how secure that person is, shapes how the US conducts a war its closest allies are paying for at the bowser.