Trump says he will sit down with Xi and Putin in Shenzhen, and he wants the Iran war on the table

The leaders of the US, China and Russia may be in one room in southern China next week. Speaking to reporters on Sunday before flying from Florida back to Washington, Donald Trump said he expected to meet Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, and that one of those meetings would be with both of them.

He called the prospect “interesting”, and said what he wanted from it. “We’re trying to end the war in Iran,” Trump said, adding that denuclearisation and other subjects would also be discussed.

APEC leaders meet in Shenzhen, the tech hub across the border from Hong Kong, on 18 and 19 November.

Why does Trump want Xi and Putin on Iran?

Because they are the two governments with the most weight in Tehran. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, and Russia has been one of Iran’s closest military partners. If Washington wants a settlement that Iran will accept, it needs both of them, at least, not to stand in the way.

The timing matters too. Trump says the US blockade of Iran’s land supply routes, run by the new Task Force Iron Gate, is now in effect, on top of the pressure at sea. He has also said renewed US strikes on Iran are “highly unlikely” if there is progress in talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme and on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. A meeting with Xi and Putin would give him a stage to push that bargain.

What does Putin want from it?

Ukraine. Putin has been reported to have pitched a three-way meeting as a way to discuss ending Russia’s war, and the Kremlin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said last week that the idea was being worked on, adding that “the main organizing force here is our Chinese friends”. Trump said in a US television interview that he believed “we’re very close to making a deal” on Ukraine, without giving details.

Kyiv sees it differently. Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said a meeting of Russia, China and the US would have the opposite effect to one that included Ukraine, and would encourage Moscow to keep fighting. Germany’s president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has said Europeans must be involved in any negotiations.

Has China agreed?

Not in public. China’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said last week that Beijing was maintaining communication with relevant parties about a possible leaders’ meeting, the first time China acknowledged the talks at all. Steinmeier has said Xi appeared to show little interest in a three-way summit built around Ukraine.

That leaves Beijing holding the key. As host, it decides the room, the format and the agenda, and a three-way meeting on Chinese soil would hand Xi the role of convener between Washington and Moscow.

Why does it matter to Australia?

APEC is the main regional forum where Australia sits at the table with all three economies. China is Australia’s largest trading partner, the US its main security ally, and the Iran war has pushed fuel prices and shipping costs up around the world. Any deal on Iran or the Strait of Hormuz struck in Shenzhen would be felt at Australian petrol pumps, and any arms control talks between the three nuclear powers would shape the region Australia is planning its defence around.

What could stop it?

Almost anything. The meeting is unconfirmed, China has not publicly committed, the agenda is disputed, and the Iran war could escalate before the leaders arrive. Trump himself framed it as something he “thinks” will happen.