Eleven leaders, 20,000 police and a war they cannot stop: ASEAN opens in Manila, and Trump flies in on the last day

Southeast Asia’s leaders opened their annual summit at a heavily guarded convention centre on Manila Bay on Sunday, with almost 20,000 police deployed across the Philippine capital.

Marcos, chairing the bloc for the last time before Singapore takes over in 2027, warned that global problems were reshaping the region “faster than any one country can respond to alone”, and said the 11-member group must hold together despite its differences.

The summit runs for three days. After the opening ceremony, leaders went into a plenary session, with meetings of the bloc’s parliamentary assembly and business council to follow.

What is at the top of the agenda?

A war none of them is fighting. Draft communiques seen by reporters put the conflict in the Middle East first. The war that began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February has squeezed shipping through the Gulf, and Southeast Asian economies that depend on imported fuel are dealing with shortages. Leaders are discussing schemes to share fuel between member states.

A draft statement also reaffirms freedom of navigation, including “the right of transit passage in straits used for international navigation”, a principle that applies as much to the Strait of Hormuz as to the South China Sea.

Will the South China Sea code finally be signed?

Not this week. Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro said on Saturday that negotiations with China were about 80% complete, but a Southeast Asian diplomat involved in the summit said he did not expect a signing. ASEAN and China first committed to working towards a code in 2002. Leaders are instead expected to repeat calls for restraint and peaceful settlement of disputes.

What about Myanmar?

Its leaders remain shut out of high-level ASEAN meetings, as they have been since the 2021 military coup. Thailand asked last week for Myanmar’s foreign minister to be let back in; the Philippines says there will be no easing. Myanmar also faces an international court ruling later this week on allegations of genocide against the Rohingya.

Who else is coming?

China’s Premier Li Qiang meets ASEAN leaders on Monday and leaves before Trump arrives on Tuesday afternoon with Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Trump will join a meeting of the Quad, the grouping of the United States, Japan, Australia and India, and a special session with ASEAN leaders, then meet Marcos at a state lunch on Wednesday before flying to Shenzhen for the APEC summit hosted by Xi Jinping.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who announced a trade deal with the Philippines on Saturday, also joined Sunday’s opening.

What does it mean for Australia?

Quite a lot. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is in Manila, where Australia and the Philippines have just signed a new defence arrangement. Southeast Asia is Australia’s closest neighbourhood and a major trading partner, and the sea lanes ASEAN is arguing over carry a large share of Australia’s trade and fuel. Tuesday’s Quad meeting will be the first of Trump’s second term.