Buy now or wait for ANZ’s 2028 bottom? On a $750,000 home a year of waiting is worth $64,800, and a 2.2 per cent rise flips it
ANZ told parliament on Thursday that house prices will fall about 13.5 per cent from peak to trough and steady in 2028, which leaves roughly 6 per cent still to come. VNN has costed what a year of waiting is worth on a $750,000 home, the price rise that would make buying now the better call, how much borrowing power each further rate rise takes away, and why WA first home buyers in the $600,000 to $800,000 band gain more from a fall than anyone else.
The chief executive of ANZ told federal parliament on Thursday that his bank expects Australian house prices to fall about 13.5 per cent from peak to trough before steadying in 2028. With prices already about 8 per cent down on the figures cited at the same hearing, that forecast implies roughly another 6 per cent to go, and at least a year before the bottom. For anyone with a deposit saved and a pre-approval in hand, it turns a vague question into a sharp one: buy this summer, or keep renting and wait?
This report answers it in dollars. VNN has built a one-year buy-or-wait comparison on a $750,000 home with every cost laid out, run it under three price paths, and found the exact price rise at which buying now wins. It shows how much borrowing power each further rate rise removes under the banks’ 3-point stress test, works through the stamp duty bonus WA first home buyers get from a falling market, and ends with a checklist and a method to rerun the numbers on your own price, rent and deposit before the Reserve Bank meets on 8 December.
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