Six US commissioners split 3-3 on Australian lamb, and the tie hands the decision to Trump

Australia’s biggest overseas lamb market is now in Donald Trump’s hands, after a US trade panel split down the middle on whether imports are hurting American farmers.

The six members of the US International Trade Commission voted 3-3 on Friday, US time, on whether increased lamb imports were a substantial cause of serious injury, or the threat of it, to the US sheep industry. Three commissioners were not persuaded that imports were doing the damage. Because the vote was tied rather than negative, the case does not end. It moves to a remedies stage.

The commission will hold a public hearing on 1 December on what restrictions could apply, and must give its report and recommendations to the president by 11 January 2027. The options include higher tariffs, a cap on how much lamb can come in, or a tariff-rate quota that taxes imports above a set volume.

Why does a tie favour the US industry?

Under US safeguard law, a tied vote lets the president decide which side counts as the commission’s finding. Jennifer Hillman, a former commissioner, said a tie means the president can pick the “winning” vote, and expected Trump to treat it as a vote in favour of the US farmers. A former deputy head of the World Trade Organization, Alan Wolff, noted the president likes tariffs.

The American Sheep Industry Association, which campaigned for the investigation, called the result an important step towards trade relief.

What is at stake for Australia?

Australia is by far the largest supplier of imported lamb to the US, with about 75 per cent of the market, ahead of New Zealand. Last year it shipped more than 100,000 tonnes worth more than $1 billion, which makes the US one of the most valuable markets for Australian sheep farmers.

Any new tariff or quota would land on a trade that has grown for three decades while US production has shrunk. American sheepmeat output was about 155,000 tonnes in 1989 and has since settled near 60,000 tonnes, a decline that continued even after the US last placed safeguards on Australian and New Zealand lamb in 1999.

What has Australia argued?

Australia’s ambassador to the US, Greg Moriarty, told the commission that any action to restrict lamb imports would only raise costs for American consumers. Australia’s case is that its lamb supports, rather than damages, the American lamb industry.

That argument may carry weight with a president who has recently backed more beef imports to bring down prices at the supermarket, angering US cattle producers in the process.

Who started this?

The investigation began in July at the request of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, after years of lobbying by US sheep producers who say “surging low-priced imports” from Australia and New Zealand have undercut them. In January, dozens of Republican members of Congress wrote to trade officials making the same case, and a bill sponsored by several members would put a 30 per cent tariff on Australian sheep products. Australia says that would breach the Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement.

What does it mean at home?

For Australian producers, the immediate effect is two months of uncertainty over their most valuable single market. A US tariff or quota would push more Australian lamb towards other markets and could weigh on prices paid to farmers here.

VNN will update this story as more is confirmed.