Albanese will watch Australia and the Philippines sign a defence deal in Manila on Sunday, a year after they promised it

Australia will sign a new defence agreement with the Philippines on Sunday, in a capital that has spent the year trading accusations with Beijing over who controls the sea on its doorstep.

The Philippine Department of National Defence said Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would witness the signing of the Defense Cooperation Arrangement in Manila, ahead of the 49th ASEAN Summit. Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr will sign for the Philippines, and Australia’s ambassador in Manila, Marc Innes-Brown, for Australia. Albanese is expected to meet senior Philippine officials on the sidelines of the summit, where Southeast Asian leaders begin high-level talks on Sunday.

The full text has not been released. The agreement is expected to expand reciprocal military access, deepen information sharing and build up the Philippine Navy and coastguard.

What does it actually change?

Much of what the agreement covers is already happening. Australia has given the Philippine Coast Guard more than $13 million since April 2025, mostly in drones and training for their operators. Those drones help Manila watch Chinese navy and coastguard ships, protect undersea cables, catch illegal fishing and track Chinese military drones. Australia has also helped build defence infrastructure at five Philippine bases on Luzon, the island closest to Taiwan.

What the deal adds is permanence. When the two ministers signed their statement of intent in August 2025, they said a full agreement would set out arrangements for Australia to build, use, upgrade and maintain defence infrastructure in the Philippines. Defence Minister Richard Marles said it would build on a 1995 memorandum of understanding and lock in annual meetings of defence ministers. Teodoro said at the time it would be “an entirely different thing” from the Philippines’ alliance with the United States.

Analysts at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute have called it a milestone that turns the relationship into a genuinely strategic partnership.

Why now?

The South China Sea is the main issue on the ASEAN table this week. China claims almost all of it through its “nine-dash line”, a claim an international tribunal in The Hague found in 2016 had no legal basis. Beijing rejects that ruling. Its claim cuts into the 370-kilometre exclusive economic zone the Philippines holds under international law, and Philippine and Chinese vessels clash often in the Spratly Islands and at Scarborough Shoal off Luzon.

In July, Philippine Navy personnel and the China Coast Guard clashed near a grounded Philippine warship, and each side blamed the other. More recently, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr accused China’s ambassador in Manila, Jing Quan, of making a threat after the ambassador said Beijing could “easily win” a conflict with the Philippines. Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro summoned him; he denied making a threat.

Teodoro has called China’s nine-dash line “the biggest threat to regional stability and peace”. Beijing has urged “relevant countries” to stop exaggerating tensions.

Where does Australia fit?

Australia is part of an informal grouping with the United States, Japan and the Philippines, nicknamed “the Squad”, which aims to build up Philippine defences and run more joint exercises. Its defence ministers met in Cebu on 28 October, and on Tuesday the group said it would set up a Combined Coordination Centre.

The timing matters for another reason. US naval forces have been moved to the Middle East for the war with Iran and operations in the Strait of Hormuz, and maritime security analysts say China has stepped up operations around the Philippines over the past six months. A signed agreement gives Canberra a standing role in Manila’s defence that does not depend on how many American ships are in the region.

For Australians, it means more of the defence budget and more Australian Defence Force time will be tied to the security of a country beside the sea lanes that carry much of Australia’s trade with North Asia.

What about the code of conduct?

ASEAN and China have been negotiating a code of conduct for the South China Sea for more than eight years. Philippine officials have not been able to say whether it will be finished by the end of this year’s summit.

VNN will update this story as more is confirmed.