The Quad’s leaders are expected to sit down together for the first time in two years, and Trump will give them a few hours in Manila before Shenzhen

The Quad, the security grouping of Australia, the United States, Japan and India, is expected to hold its first leaders’ meeting in two years in Manila on Tuesday.

Two people familiar with the planning say the four leaders will meet on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, whose final day is Tuesday. A Philippine government source briefed on the preparations says they are expected to gather shortly after Mr Trump arrives in Manila that day. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated last month that the leaders could meet on the summit’s sidelines, but the meeting has not been formally announced.

If it goes ahead, it will be the first Quad leaders’ meeting since September 2024, when Joe Biden hosted the group in Delaware, and the first time Mr Trump has sat down with all three of his Quad counterparts in his second term.

What will they talk about?

One person familiar with the planning says free and open commercial shipping lanes, needed to secure energy supplies, are likely to come up, and that attacks on commercial ships are “very likely” to be raised. Critical minerals are also expected to be on the agenda.

Both issues have sharpened since the four last met. At least 25 seafarers have been killed in and around the Strait of Hormuz since the war on Iran began in February, the United Nations told the Security Council on Friday, and traffic through the strait remains about two-thirds below pre-war levels.

Why does it matter to Australia?

Australia is the Quad member most exposed to what moves by sea. It imports most of its liquid fuel and exports most of its iron ore, coal, gas and grain by ship, much of it through the same Indo-Pacific waters the Quad was set up to keep open.

On critical minerals, Australia already has a framework deal with the US, signed at the White House in October 2025, to build supply chains outside China. A Quad commitment would widen that to Japan and India, two of the region’s biggest buyers.

The Manila meeting also closes a busy few days for Mr Albanese in the Philippines. He is due to watch Australia and the Philippines sign a defence cooperation agreement in Manila on Sunday.

Why has the Quad gone quiet?

The group is widely seen as a counterweight to China’s growing influence, although its members say it is not aimed at any one country. India was due to host the leaders’ summit after Delaware, but no leaders’ meeting has been held since. Mr Rubio has been the Trump administration’s main voice on the Quad, meeting his counterparts at foreign minister level.

A meeting squeezed into the last day of another summit, hours before Mr Trump leaves for China, suggests a brief session rather than a full summit with a long list of announcements.

What comes after Manila?

Mr Trump is scheduled to fly to Shenzhen on Wednesday for the APEC summit. There he is expected to meet Mr Xi for the third time this year and to join a first three-way meeting with Mr Xi and Mr Putin. The Quad’s other three leaders will be watching what he agrees to there as closely as anything said in Manila.