The Bay of Bengal’s third storm in a month: Cyclone Akvan is forecast to hit very severe strength as it heads for India’s east coast

India’s east coast is bracing for its third cyclone in a month.

A depression over the Bay of Bengal was gradually intensifying on Sunday afternoon, India’s weather service said, about 1,010 km south-south-east of Visakhapatnam, the port city in Andhra Pradesh, and moving slowly north-north-west.

The India Meteorological Department expects it to become a cyclonic storm, named Akvan, on Monday 16 November, a severe cyclonic storm on Tuesday 17 November and a very severe cyclonic storm over the sea by 19 November, with sustained winds of 120 to 130 km/h and gusts to 145 km/h.

“By November 17, it is likely to intensify into a severe cyclonic storm,” said Manorama Mohanty, director of the department’s regional centre in Bhubaneswar.

Where will it hit?

That is the open question. The weather service has not yet named a likely landfall area, and forecasters say the models still disagree. The current track points at the Andhra Pradesh coast, but some models pull it further south, towards northern Tamil Nadu, which would bring its outer bands closer to Chennai.

Who is in the firing line now?

Odisha’s southern districts are the first with firm warnings. Puri, Ganjam and Gajapati could see heavy rain at isolated places on 18 November and heavy to very heavy rain on 19 November, with heavy falls spreading to more than a dozen other districts. Coastal Andhra Pradesh is expected to get heavy rain on 18 and 19 November, and parts of southern West Bengal from 19 to 21 November.

Fishermen have been told not to go to sea from 18 to 21 November, and those already out have been told to return immediately. Rough seas are also expected around the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Why does a third storm matter?

Because the ground is already soaked and the coast is already tired. Akvan follows cyclones Arnab and Murasu, both formed since the north-east monsoon set in during mid-October. Each storm hits communities that have had little time to clear drains, repair homes or restock.

The Bay of Bengal is the world’s deadliest cyclone basin. Shallow, warm water and low, crowded coastlines on the Indian and Bangladeshi side mean storm surge is often the biggest killer, which is why Indian authorities now evacuate hundreds of thousands of people ahead of very severe storms.

Where does the name come from?

Akvan was submitted by Iran under the regional naming system. It comes from a demon-like figure in the Shahnameh, the Persian epic by Ferdowsi.

What does it mean for travellers?

Anyone with flights or travel through Visakhapatnam, Bhubaneswar, Kolkata or Chennai in the second half of this week should watch for airline and rail changes once the landfall area is named.

VNN will update this story as more is confirmed.