Russia’s price for peace in Ukraine: Britain and France must leave the rest of Europe without nuclear cover

Russia has made the nuclear protection of Europe part of its price for ending the war in Ukraine.

An unsigned Russian position paper, dated 10 November and presented during talks in the Kremlin on 12 November between President Vladimir Putin and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, sets out conditions that go far beyond Ukraine’s borders. Its contents have been reported across European and US media since Friday.

At its centre is a demand that Britain and France, Europe’s only nuclear powers, rule out using their arsenals to defend any other European country. The paper also calls for an end to NATO’s nuclear-sharing arrangements, under which US nuclear weapons are based in several European states.

What else is Russia asking for?

A Europe redrawn to 1997. The paper asks NATO to withdraw allied forces to the alliance’s borders before it took in former Warsaw Pact countries, which would mean pulling troops out of Poland and the Baltic states. It asks for a ban on further NATO enlargement and on military activity in Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and a complete halt to Western weapons for Ukraine.

The one apparent concession: Moscow says it could accept Ukraine joining the EU, as long as Kyiv is kept out of the bloc’s common defence policy.

How has Europe answered?

With a flat no. Burnham, speaking to reporters at the European Political Community summit in Dublin, said Europe’s security arrangements were not open to negotiation, and that it was for Europe alone to decide them. Britain commits its submarine-based nuclear deterrent to the defence of NATO.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that accepting the terms would be a direct threat to Poland’s security. Finland’s defence minister called any discussion of his country’s NATO membership outrageous. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha accused Putin of chasing a new Yalta, and said the most Moscow can expect is a ceasefire along the current front line. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has rejected tying a Ukraine deal to a rewrite of Europe’s defences.

Why does the nuclear demand matter so much?

Because it targets the backstop of European security. If London and Paris promised to use their weapons only in their own defence, a Russian attack on, say, Estonia or Poland would carry less risk of a nuclear response from Europe itself, leaving those countries more dependent on the US. Britain and France agreed in 2025 to coordinate their nuclear deterrents for the first time, a step meant to strengthen exactly the protection Moscow now wants removed.

Haven’t we heard this before?

Yes. In December 2021 Russia demanded legally binding promises that NATO would not expand, would pull back from Eastern Europe and would end nuclear sharing. The West refused, and Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The new paper repeats much of that list, now with the added demand on Britain and France.

What does it mean for Australia?

Australia is not part of NATO, but it has backed Ukraine with military aid since 2022, and its own security rests on the same idea of extended deterrence through its alliance with the US. A deal that weakened nuclear guarantees in Europe would be watched closely in Asia.