Peltola is about 0.2 points short of winning Alaska outright. She has declared victory anyway, and Sullivan says he’s waiting for every ballot
Democrat Mary Peltola has claimed victory in Alaska's Senate race, the only contest of the US midterms still without a projected winner. She leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan by about 10,400 votes with roughly 96% of ballots counted, and sits just under the 50% that would spare her a ranked-choice count; Sullivan's team says it is waiting for every vote.
Live updates
- 12.05am AWST MonLatest
Race still uncalled. Peltola leads by 10,412 votes, 49.84% to 46.09%, with about 96% of ballots counted. Sullivan's campaign says it is waiting for every ballot.
- Sat 14 Nov
Peltola's campaign declares victory, saying "Alaskans have spoken." NBC's Decision Desk rates the race likely Democratic.
- Fri 13 Nov, about 7.15pm Alaska time
New results push Peltola to within about 0.2 points of an outright majority.
This page checks for new updates automatically.
Three things to know
- Peltola has 49.84% of first-choice votes to Sullivan's 46.09%, a lead of 10,412 with fewer than 12,000 ballots left to count after Friday's results.
- The Associated Press has not called the race. NBC News' Decision Desk rates it likely Democratic, meaning at least 95% confidence in a Peltola win.
- A Peltola win would give Democrats a 56-44 Senate majority from January, still short of the 60 votes needed to beat a filibuster.
Mary Peltola’s campaign declared on Saturday, Alaska time, that “Alaskans have spoken,” and said there was no mathematical path left for Senator Dan Sullivan. Nobody with the authority to call the race has yet agreed, but nearly everything in the count points her way.
After the latest results on Friday night, Peltola led with 49.84% of first-choice votes to Sullivan’s 46.09%. That is a margin of 10,412 votes, with fewer than 12,000 ballots estimated to be still uncounted. Peltola, 53, is a former member of the US House; Sullivan, 62, has held the seat since 2015.
Sullivan’s spokesman, Nate Adams, said the campaign was “still waiting for every ballot to be counted.” Sullivan himself had not posted publicly since election night.
Why isn’t it over?
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. If no candidate wins more than half of the first-choice votes, the last-placed candidate is eliminated and their voters’ second choices are shared out, round by round, until someone crosses 50%.
Peltola is about 0.2 percentage points short. One estimate puts her need at just over 50.2% of the votes still to be counted to clear the bar outright. If she falls short, the ranked-choice tabulation decides it, and the two minor candidates’ preferences come into play. One of them is a second candidate named Dan Sullivan, a retired teacher from Petersburg, whose 1.64% share is at the centre of the race’s main legal fight.
Ballots postmarked by election day had to arrive by 13 November, and valid overseas ballots get a few extra days. Ranked-choice tabulations for races without a first-choice majority are run once all legally received ballots are counted, expected around the middle of this week.
What is the fight over the other Dan Sullivan?
President Trump’s Justice Department sued before election day, alleging Peltola’s campaign recruited spoiler candidates and seeking to halt certification if she won by fewer votes than the second Sullivan received. Federal and state criminal investigations ordered by Trump and Governor Mike Dunleavy are under way. The allegations have not been tested in court.
On the current count the dispute may not matter: Peltola’s 3.75-point lead is more than double the second Sullivan’s 1.64%. Trump had declared the race “over” in Sullivan’s favour last week.
Why does one seat matter so much?
It completes the picture of a Senate that Democrats will control next year. A Peltola win would make it 56-44, a commanding majority for passing legislation and confirming or blocking nominees, though still four seats short of the 60 needed to end a filibuster.
It would also cap a remarkable midterm for Alaska Democrats. Last week a Democrat, Scott Kreiss-Tomkins, won the governorship, the first Democrat elected governor of Alaska since 1998, and voters chose for the third time to keep ranked-choice voting. In the state’s single House seat, Republican Nick Begich leads.
What does it mean outside America?
The Senate ratifies treaties and confirms ambassadors and cabinet members. For allies such as Australia, the size of the Democratic majority shapes how much of Trump’s foreign and trade agenda can pass through it in his final two years.
VNN will update this story as more is confirmed.
How we got here
The key moments that brought this story into focus. Open any moment for detail.
2015Sullivan takes office
Dan Sullivan begins his first Senate term.
2022Peltola wins the House seat
Peltola becomes Alaska's first Alaska Native member of Congress.
Before 3 November 2026Lawsuit filed
The Justice Department sues over alleged spoiler candidates.
3 November 2026Election day
Peltola leads on first-choice votes from the first count.
13 November 2026Ballot deadline
Last day for postmarked ballots to arrive.
14 November 2026Peltola claims victory
The race remains the only uncalled Senate contest.
What happens next
The last legally received ballots are due to be counted this week, followed by ranked-choice tabulation if no one has a majority. A formal projection could come as soon as the final batches are released. The Alaska Division of Elections aims to certify results by 25 November, and the Justice Department lawsuit and the criminal investigations remain open.
Sources
- VNN
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