El Niño: declared in June, still strengthening

The Bureau declared El Niño active in mid-June 2026, ABC News reported on 16 June, with weekly sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific’s Niño3.4 region passing the 0.8°C El Niño threshold for the first time since the previous event ended in early 2024. The ABC reported that the Bureau’s ACCESS-S model projected a peak more than 3°C above normal, which would exceed the post-1900 record of 2.65°C set in November 1902.

International forecasters agree on the direction. The World Meteorological Organization’s Global Seasonal Climate Update, published on 3 September 2026, said the multi-model ensemble forecast a Niño3.4 anomaly of approximately 3.6°C for September to November, with a peak expected in November to December. At the AFAC conference in Melbourne in August, the Bureau’s general manager of national production services, Michael Logan, said the event was “strengthening and it is going to be a very strong one”, Wildfire Today reported.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole: declared 27 October

The second driver arrived last week. The Bureau declared a positive IOD on Tuesday 27 October, DTN and Weatherzone reported, after the IOD index had sat above the Bureau’s +0.4°C threshold for seven consecutive weeks. The index reached +0.69°C in the week ending 25 October. Models suggest the event will persist through the rest of spring and return to neutral in early summer.

A positive IOD typically brings below-average rain and above-average daytime temperatures to much of southern and central Australia in winter and spring. El Niño, by contrast, tends to dry eastern Australia.

What is the summer outlook for 2026-27?

Hot almost everywhere

The Bureau’s long-range forecast for November 2026 to January 2027, as reported by Yahoo News Australia on 30 October, says above-average temperatures are “very likely” for most of Australia. Bureau hydrologist Dr David Wilson said there was “an increased chance of unusually warm days”, meaning temperatures in the top 20 per cent for this time of year, and that “the heatwave risk is elevated as we approach the warmer months”. Marine heatwaves are also a risk, particularly in the south-east early in the season.

That follows a warm run: the Bureau’s winter 2026 summary records Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales as having their warmest winters on record. In October, Hobart recorded two consecutive days above 30°C for the first time in that month, Yahoo News Australia reported.

Rain is the wildcard

The rainfall outlook is where this season departs from the textbook. The same Bureau outlook forecasts above-average rain for parts of western, central and eastern Australia through to the end of January, but below-average rain in Victoria, Tasmania and the far north.

Weatherzone’s Ben Domensino explained on 29 October that a large area of warmer-than-average water in the south-central Indian Ocean, south of the regions used to measure the IOD, is boosting evaporation and moisture that westerly winds and cold fronts can carry towards Australia. DTN reported sea surface temperatures up to 3°C above average off Western Australia, South Australia and south-eastern Australia. Warm oceans, in short, are partly offsetting the drivers’ usual drying effect.

Dr Wilson cautioned that “a strong El Niño event doesn’t necessarily mean stronger impacts for Australia”. The ABC made a similar point in June, noting that a strong Pacific signal has only a weak link to local impacts, so a record El Niño does not guarantee a record drought.

Where is bushfire risk highest?

The national outlook

The most recent national Seasonal Bushfire Outlook from the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC), released on 19 August 2026 and covering spring, identified increased fire potential in:

• northern and south-eastern New South Wales
• south-east Queensland
• north-eastern Tasmania
• parts of Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria
• large parts of the Northern Territory.

Weatherzone’s summary of the outlook cited very low rainfall in inland north-east NSW from January to July, vegetation drying early in southern Queensland, and the warmest May-to-July period on record for south-east Victoria. In south-west WA, above-average fuel loads and dry soils met a below-average spring rain forecast.

In the Northern Territory, a late wet season was expected to stretch the Top End fire season into November, while the Barkly and Tanami regions were forecast to peak in October and November after a strong 2025–26 wet season grew abundant grass.

AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said the outlook “highlights a heightened risk of fire across several parts of the country”. AFAC stresses that its outlooks are not a prediction of where or when fires will occur.

Why rain does not cancel the risk

The forecast of above-average rain in parts of central and eastern Australia may seem reassuring, but it cuts both ways. AFAC’s spring outlook pointed to fuel growth after earlier rain as a driver of risk in central Australia and north-west WA. Grass that grows after rain and then cures under a hot sun can carry fast-moving fire, which is why the CFA sets fire danger periods in part on “grassland curing rates” as well as rainfall.

Daily fire danger also depends on the weather on the day, including heat, humidity and wind, so a wetter-than-average November does not rule out a dangerous day in January.

The north

DTN reported that model guidance shows a drying signal building across northern Australia from December into January, particularly the Kimberley, Top End and Cape York, pointing to a later monsoon, a longer northern fire season and a later start to tropical cyclone activity.

Fire danger periods: where restrictions now apply

Fire danger periods (Victoria) and fire danger seasons (South Australia) restrict the lighting of fires in the open. Dates are set locally and can change with conditions.

Victoria

The Country Fire Authority (CFA) lists the following start dates for 2026-27, all running to 1 May 2027:

• 5 October 2026: East Gippsland and Wellington
• 26 October 2026: Mildura
• 2 November 2026: Swan Hill
• 9 November 2026: Buloke, Campaspe, Gannawarra, Hindmarsh, Horsham, Loddon, West Wimmera and Yarriambiack (some in part).

A fire danger period is not the same as a Total Fire Ban, the CFA notes.

South Australia

The Country Fire Service (CFS) lists 2026-27 fire danger season dates, as at 5 November 2026:

• 15 October 2026: Eastern Eyre Peninsula, Flinders, both Pastoral districts and West Coast
• 1 November 2026: Lower South East, Mid North, Murraylands, Riverland, Upper South East and Yorke Peninsula
• 15 November 2026: Lower Eyre Peninsula
• To be announced: Adelaide Metropolitan, Mount Lofty Ranges and Kangaroo Island.

New South Wales

The NSW Rural Fire Service brought forward the Bush Fire Danger Period for Wingecarribee and Wollondilly to 14 September 2026 because of “prevailing dry conditions”, The Southern Wire reported. The statutory period normally begins on 1 October across most of the state. During the period, a fire permit is needed to light a fire in the open. Residents elsewhere should check their state or territory fire agency for local dates.

How fire danger ratings work

Daily risk is communicated through the Australian Fire Danger Rating System, which has four levels, each with an action message.

• Moderate: plan and prepare
• High: be ready to act
• Extreme: take action now to protect your life and property
• Catastrophic: for your survival, leave bushfire risk areas.

No rating is issued on days of minimal risk. Ratings are issued daily by state and territory fire agencies.

What it means for households

A hot outlook and pockets of dry fuel mean preparation matters even where the rainfall forecast looks benign. Fire agencies’ standard advice is to have a written bushfire plan, decide in advance what will trigger you to leave, clear gutters and vegetation near the house, and know where to get warnings, including your state agency’s app and local ABC radio. The heat itself is a hazard, and state health departments publish heatwave guidance; readers with specific health concerns should speak to their doctor.

What happens next

• Late November: AFAC’s summer 2026-27 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook is expected, Wildfire Today reported, giving the first national picture of fire potential for the El Niño summer
• Coming weeks: the Bureau’s regular Climate Driver Update will track whether El Niño peaks in November to December as the WMO forecast, and whether the positive IOD returns to neutral in early summer as models suggest.
• 9 and 15 November: further fire danger periods start in north-west Victoria and on South Australia’s Lower Eyre Peninsula.
• From December: the forecast drying signal across northern Australia, if it eventuates, would delay the monsoon and extend the northern fire season.