Colom leads Hyde-Smith by 2,574 votes in Mississippi, a state with no recount law, as both sides send in lawyers

Democrat Scott Colom led Republican Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith by 2,574 votes in Mississippi’s US Senate race as of Saturday afternoon US time (early Sunday AWST), with about 97 per cent of the expected vote counted. The race, in a state Donald Trump has won comfortably, is one of only two Senate contests still uncalled after Tuesday’s midterms, alongside Alaska.

The margin has moved a long way. Just after midnight on election night Colom was ahead by a few dozen votes. By Friday the gap was more than 2,500, with Colom on 467,930 votes (49.08 per cent) to Hyde-Smith’s 465,356 (48.81 per cent).

How many votes are left?

No one knows for certain. Mississippi’s counties run their own elections, and Secretary of State Michael Watson’s office has said it does not know how many provisional ballots, called “affidavit ballots” in Mississippi, remain. Watson said on Friday that 11,202 had been processed so far and 78 per cent of them accepted.

Colom’s campaign estimates there could be up to 15,000 affidavit ballots this year. Mississippi Republican Party chair Mike Hurst puts the figure higher, at about 17,000 affidavit ballots and 3,000 mail ballots, and said he believed Hyde-Smith would be re-elected if all of them were counted.

The early county results point the other way so far. In Oktibbeha County, Colom took 401 of the 503 affidavit ballots processed, to Hyde-Smith’s 96.

What are affidavit ballots?

An affidavit ballot is given to a voter whose eligibility cannot be confirmed at the polling place, for example because they are missing from the roll. Some of those voters may have to “cure” their ballot, proving their eligibility, before it counts, and each one is checked by county officials, which is why the count is slow.

Mail ballots postmarked by election day count if they arrive by Tuesday 10 November, and affidavit ballots must be verified by the same day. Counties then have to certify their results, and the state’s certification deadline is Friday 13 November.

Why does the missing recount law matter?

In most US states a margin this narrow would trigger, or allow, a recount. Mississippi has no recount procedure at all: neither candidate can ask for one. A court can order a recount, which is why lawyers for both campaigns have been deployed to the state.

Hyde-Smith’s campaign has asked local officials to keep affidavit ballots separate from the rest of the count and to preserve election records, a step that usually comes before a legal challenge. Her campaign said it was confident the remaining votes “will reinforce her path to victory”. Colom said, “We’re going to win,” arguing that absentee and affidavit ballots lean Democratic.

What is at stake?

Not control of the Senate: Democrats are already projected to hold 54 seats to the Republicans’ 44, with Mississippi and Alaska undecided. But a Colom win would be a symbolic blow in the Deep South. Mississippi last sent a Democrat to the Senate by election in 1982, and Hyde-Smith, appointed in 2018, has held the seat since.

For Australian and world readers, the count is also a test of how a US state settles a near-tie without a recount process, in an election that has already reshaped Washington’s balance of power for Donald Trump’s final two years.

VNN will update this story as more is confirmed.