The ANC wins no big city outright as its vote falls to about 31%, the party’s worst result since apartheid ended

South Africa’s African National Congress, the party that has governed the country since Nelson Mandela took office, has recorded its worst election result since 1994.

With more than 99% of voting districts counted by Sunday afternoon (South African time), the ANC had about 31% of the vote in the 4 November municipal elections, down from about 46% in 2021. The Democratic Alliance (DA) was second on about 25% and former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party third on about 10%. The Electoral Commission was due to formally declare the results at 6pm on Sunday in Midrand, midnight AWST, with President Cyril Ramaphosa expected to speak.

The commission said outstanding objections would not hold up the declaration, although some results could still be amended. Recounts were ordered in five wards.

How bad is it for the ANC?

The party won no outright majority in any of the eight big metropolitan councils, including Johannesburg and Pretoria (Tshwane).

The numbers in its old strongholds are stark. In Johannesburg the ANC’s share fell to about 20%, from 58.6% in 2011. In Ekurhuleni, the industrial belt east of Johannesburg, it fell to about 22% from 61.6%. In eThekwini, which includes Durban, it was on about 16%, behind the MK party. Buffalo City in the Eastern Cape is the only metro where the ANC kept more than 40%.

ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula called the result “catastrophic” and said the party would not beg for positions in coalition talks, but would “go home and put our house in order”.

Who gains?

The DA leads in all three Gauteng metros the ANC led in 2021: Johannesburg, Tshwane and Ekurhuleni. In Johannesburg, the country’s biggest city, it was on about 35% against the ANC’s 20%, putting former DA leader Helen Zille, 75, in line for the mayoralty if she can assemble a coalition. Zille campaigned on potholes and leaking water pipes.

In Cape Town the DA was on course to keep its outright majority, and mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis declared victory days ago.

The DA said it would open coalition talks with parties committed to “clean and accountable government”. ActionSA, which polled strongly in Gauteng, is the likely kingmaker in several metros.

Why did voters walk away?

The ANC has faced years of anger over failing local services: water outages, power cuts and crumbling roads in towns and cities it ran. Unemployment is above 34%, and corruption scandals and breakaway parties such as MK have eaten into its base.

Turnout was estimated at about 54.5%, about 15.9 million of 29.2 million registered voters, up from 46% in 2021. More people voted, and fewer of them chose the ANC.

What does it mean beyond South Africa?

The ANC already lost its national majority in 2024, when it won just over 40% and formed a “government of national unity” with nine other parties, including the DA. Municipal results have historically run below the ANC’s national vote, but a fall this steep is the clearest warning yet ahead of the 2029 general election.

For investors in Africa’s most industrialised economy, the result points to a country governed by coalitions at every level, where the cities that drive the economy will be run by deals between parties that compete nationally.

What happens next?

Councils have 14 days to hold their first sittings and elect mayors. Until then, the DA, ANC, ActionSA, MK and smaller parties will negotiate city by city, and the ANC and DA, partners in the national government, may find themselves on opposite sides in Johannesburg and Pretoria.