A drone crosses three NATO countries with fighter jets behind it, and Lithuania says it was probably Ukraine’s

For the second time in a matter of hours, red air-raid alerts went out across central and northern Lithuania overnight, as a drone from Belarus flew the length of the country with NATO fighter jets in pursuit.

The jets did not bring it down. “The fighter jets came quite close to making contact,” Vitkauskas, head of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Centre, said on Wednesday, suggesting poor weather or the risk of firing over populated ground may have stopped them. Debris from a NATO missile was later found near Biržai in the north. It is still not clear whether the drone was hit.

Lithuania’s Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius said four drones had been detected across the region on what he called “a difficult night”. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia all issued shelter warnings, and all were withdrawn within hours. No injuries were reported.

How did the night unfold?

Belarus warned Lithuania about unidentified flying objects through a technical hotline at 10.47pm on Tuesday, local time (4.47am Wednesday AWST), according to Lithuania’s Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas. Yellow alerts followed for the Vilnius and Utena regions at about 11pm. Vilnius and Kaunas airports also closed during the night, after an earlier warning about possible smuggling balloons; three Vilnius flights with more than 400 passengers were affected.

The first drones, detected in Belarus, did not enter Lithuania. Then a second alert began in the south. One drone is believed to have entered near the resort town of Druskininkai, possibly clipped Polish airspace, and flew north through the Marijampolė, Kaunas and Panevėžys regions before leaving near Pasvalys. Alerts were raised to red along its path.

In Latvia, the armed forces issued rolling warnings from about 2.20am to 3.30am local time (8.20am to 9.30am AWST) as the drone, escorted by fighter jets, crossed five municipalities and left near Ape for Estonia. Latvia activated interceptor-drone units, air defences and NATO’s Baltic Air Policing jets. Finland briefly restricted air and sea traffic in the eastern Gulf of Finland as a precaution, then lifted the restrictions.

Whose drones were they?

The defence minister said the drones were “most likely Ukrainian” and were meant for Ust-Luga, a major Russian export port on the Gulf of Finland. Ukrainian drones did attack Russia’s north-west overnight, setting fire to the Ust-Luga port area and injuring three people. In Russia’s Smolensk region, which borders Belarus, falling drone debris killed two people, the local governor was cited as saying.

Moscow has accused Kyiv of using NATO airspace as cover for its long-range attacks. Kyiv says Russian electronic jamming is pushing some of its drones off course.

Why does this matter?

Ukraine’s drones are now hitting Russian oil infrastructure hundreds of kilometres from the front, and the shortest routes to targets on the Baltic coast run close to, or over, NATO territory. Each stray drone tests the alliance’s air defences in real conditions, and Wednesday’s night showed the limits: modern jets struggled to stop a small, slow target over populated ground in bad weather.

It also leaves Baltic governments in an awkward position. Their populations are among Ukraine’s firmest supporters, yet they are the ones sent to shelters, and their airports are the ones that close, when Ukraine’s drones go astray.

The incursions came as Russian and Ukrainian delegations held a second day of talks in Abu Dhabi, their first face-to-face negotiations in months. Russia also struck Ukraine overnight, with power cut in parts of Kryvyi Rih and people injured in Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia, according to reports from Ukraine that have not been independently confirmed.