The world’s fossil fuel emissions are finally falling, and scientists warn a war did part of the work

Almost every year, the annual stocktake of the world’s carbon emissions has delivered the same line: another record. This year’s does not. Emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to fall 0.4 per cent in 2026, to 38.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, according to the Global Carbon Budget, the yearly accounting by more than 140 scientists that is now in its 21st edition.

The fall is small, roughly 150 million tonnes, on VNN’s calculation from the report’s figures. What matters is the direction, and the uncomfortable reason for part of it.

Why are emissions falling?

Two forces, one welcome and one not. Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are now meeting about two-thirds of the growth in the world’s demand for energy, the report found, and solar and wind alone are projected to avoid 4.6 billion tonnes of emissions this year.

The other force is the Iran war. Emissions from oil are projected to fall 1.9 per cent, which the scientists describe as likely a short-term response to the energy shock the conflict set off. High prices and tight supply cut driving and flying; emissions from international aviation fell too, partly because of reduced activity in the Middle East.

Lead author Pierre Friedlingstein, of the University of Exeter, called the fall encouraging, but said a drop “driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution”. Glen Peters, of the CICERO climate research centre in Norway, put it more bluntly: “A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak.”

Who is cutting and who is not?

China, the world’s biggest emitter, is projected to cut fossil emissions 0.9 per cent, even as its coal use edges up 0.3 per cent. The United States falls 1.3 per cent, mainly from coal, and the European Union 1.5 per cent. India goes the other way, up 4.4 per cent, faster than its average over the past decade.

Fifty-nine countries emitted less in 2025 than they did in 2019, before the pandemic. Australia’s emissions fell 1.2 per cent in 2025, according to the report’s data.

So is the climate problem easing?

Not yet. The fossil fuel figure is only part of the ledger. Emissions from land use, mostly clearing and fire, are projected to rise to 5.1 billion tonnes, driven by peat fires and forest degradation in South-East Asia during this year’s El Niño. Add them and total carbon dioxide emissions rise, from 42.8 billion tonnes last year to 43.3 billion.

The atmosphere records the total, not the trend. Carbon dioxide concentrations are projected to reach 427.7 parts per million this year, 54 per cent above pre-industrial levels.

The number to hold on to is 150 billion tonnes: the report’s estimate of what the world can still emit and keep a chance of limiting warming to 1.5C. At the current rate that is less than four years of emissions, which means the budget runs out around the end of the decade unless emissions fall far faster than 0.4 per cent a year.

Why does the timing matter?

The report landed on the first full days of COP31 in Antalya, where delegates from more than 190 countries are meeting for two weeks. Host Türkiye is pushing electrification, Pacific island nations want a roadmap away from fossil fuels, and oil producers led by Saudi Arabia argue fossil fuels still have a role. Negotiators now have a figure both sides can use: proof that clean energy bends the curve, and proof that it has not yet bent it enough without a war’s help.