NZ election: Labour and National neck and neck as Luxon’s coalition clings to a one-seat majority

New Zealand’s election is on a knife-edge. As at 9pm NZDT (4pm AWST), with 33.7% of voting places counted, the Electoral Commission’s preliminary count has Labour on 29.85% of the party vote and National on 29.42%, separated by about 6,400 votes out of almost 1.5 million counted.

These are early, preliminary figures. They do not include special votes, which are counted over the next three weeks and can move seats. VNN’s live results page, updated every minute from the Commission’s count, is at valcorednews.com/new-zealand-polls-live-coverage.

How does the party vote compare with the final polls?

National is running ahead of its final polling. VNN’s average of five final polls, to 3 November, had Labour on 29.2% and National on 27.2%; National is about two points above that so far, while Labour is close to its poll figure.

The Greens are on 14.04% (polls: 14.8%), ACT on 10.54% (10.3%) and NZ First on 9.34% (10.0%). Opportunity, polling 6.5%, has 5.42%, just above the 5% threshold a party needs to win list seats without an electorate. Te Pāti Māori has 0.58%, below its polling average of 1.3%, and the new Te Tai Tokerau Party has 0.05%.

What would it mean for seats?

The Commission has published a seat allocation from the count so far, and it points to the largest Parliament since MMP began: 131 seats, 11 more than the standard 120. That is because National leads in 42 electorates, more than its party vote alone would give it, and Te Pāti Māori leads in five electorates on well under 1% of the party vote. Both would keep those extra “overhang” seats, which raises the number needed to govern to 66.

On these figures National would have 42 seats, Labour 36, the Greens 17, ACT 13, NZ First 11, Opportunity 7 and Te Pāti Māori 5.

That gives the current coalition of National, ACT and NZ First exactly 66 seats, a majority of one. Labour and the Greens would have 53; adding Opportunity takes them to 60 and Te Pāti Māori to 65, one short. National and NZ First have ruled out working with Opportunity.

A single seat either way, from a shift in the party vote, a close electorate or the special votes, could change which side can form a government. In 2023 the special votes cost National two seats.

Which electorates are close?

Five electorates are separated by less than 1.5 points, the margin below which VNN’s results page will show a seat as too close to call even once its count is complete:

• Hamilton East: National’s Ryan Hamilton leads Labour’s Georgie Dansey by 0.45 points.
• Whangārei: National’s Lloyd Budd leads Labour’s Gary Payinda by 0.88 points.
• Mt Roskill: National’s Carlos Cheung leads Labour’s Michael Wood by 0.96 points.
• Nelson: National’s Blair Cameron leads Labour’s Rachel Boyack by 1.27 points, a rerun of 2023, when Cameron led on election night and Boyack won the seat by 29 votes once special votes were counted.
• Te Tai Tokerau: Te Pāti Māori’s Aperahama Edwards leads the Greens’ Hūhana Lyndon by 1.38 points.

Several seats are leaning towards a change of hands. In Hutt South, Labour’s Ginny Andersen leads National’s Chris Bishop, who took the seat from her in 2023, by 3.27 points. In Banks Peninsula, Labour’s Tracey McLellan leads National’s Vanessa Weenink by 6.31 points.

In Epsom, ACT leader David Seymour leads National’s Paul Goldsmith by 6.64 points. Luxon leads comfortably in Botany, and Labour leader Chris Hipkins in Remutaka.

What is happening in the Māori seats?

This is the first election since Te Pāti Māori split. Te Tai Tokerau MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi left the party in May to form the Te Tai Tokerau Party, and Te Tai Tonga MP Tākuta Ferris, who won that seat for Te Pāti Māori in 2023, is standing as an independent.

Neither sitting MP is among the top two in their seat so far. In Te Tai Tokerau, Te Pāti Māori is narrowly ahead of the Greens. In Te Tai Tonga, Labour’s Mananui Ramsden leads the Greens’ Lisa Te Morenga by 9.72 points, which would take the seat back for Labour.

Te Pāti Māori leads in Hauraki-Waikato, Tāmaki Makaurau, Te Tai Hauāuru and Waiariki as well, while Labour’s Cushla Tangaere-Manuel leads in Ikaroa-Rāwhiti.

What should we watch next?

The Electoral Commission aims to count half of voting places by 10pm NZDT (5pm AWST, 8pm AEDT) and 95% by 11.30pm NZDT (6.30pm AWST, 9.30pm AEDT). Watch whether National’s lead in electorates holds, whether Opportunity stays above 5%, and the five close seats.

Why does it matter for Australia?

New Zealand is one of Australia’s closest partners. The two countries have had a free-trade agreement, Closer Economic Relations, since 1983, and the Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement lets their citizens live and work in each other’s country. Since July 2023, New Zealanders who have lived in Australia for four years can apply directly for Australian citizenship. Whoever forms the next government in Wellington will manage that relationship, along with trade and defence ties, with Canberra.