NZ election: Luxon’s coalition holds a one-seat majority as Labour edges National on the party vote

New Zealand’s governing coalition has finished election night with a majority on the preliminary count, but only by a single seat. As at 2.23am NZDT on Sunday (9.23pm AWST on Saturday), with all voting places counted, the Electoral Commission’s preliminary count gives Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National, ACT and NZ First parties 67 seats in a 131-seat Parliament, one more than the 66 needed to govern.

The two major parties finished almost level, and the lead changed late in the count. Labour has 29.36% of the party vote and National 29.21%, a gap of about 3,650 votes out of more than 2.43 million cast. National had been narrowly ahead at 11.46pm NZDT, with 94.5% counted.

These figures are preliminary. They do not include special votes, such as those cast from overseas or by people who enrolled late, and seats can change when those votes are counted. VNN’s live results page, updated from the Commission’s count, is at valcorednews.com/new-zealand-polls-live-coverage.

How many seats would each party have?

The Commission has allocated seats on the preliminary count as follows:

• National: 42 seats, all of them electorates
• Labour: 36 seats (21 electorates, 15 list)
• Greens: 16 seats (2 electorates, 14 list)
• ACT: 13 seats (1 electorate, 12 list)
• NZ First: 12 seats, all from the list
• Opportunity: 7 seats, all from the list
• Te Pāti Māori: 5 seats, all electorates

That adds up to 131 seats, 11 more than the standard 120, which would make this the largest Parliament since New Zealand adopted MMP. The extra “overhang” seats arise because National leads in 42 electorates, more than its share of the party vote would give it, and Te Pāti Māori leads in five of the seven Māori electorates on 0.57% of the party vote. Parties keep the electorates they win, so Parliament grows and the number needed for a majority rises from 61 to 66.

The Greens have 13.30% of the party vote, ACT 10.92% and NZ First 9.78%. Opportunity, on 5.96%, has cleared the 5% threshold a party needs to win list seats without an electorate, and would enter Parliament for the first time.

Who can form a government?

On the preliminary count, only the current coalition has the numbers. National, ACT and NZ First together have 67 seats. Without NZ First’s 12, National and ACT would have 55, well short, so Winston Peters’ party remains essential to any National-led government.

On the other side, Labour and the Greens have 52 seats. Adding Te Pāti Māori takes them to 57, and Opportunity’s seven would bring a Labour-led group to 64, two short of a majority. That makes Opportunity, led by Qiulae Wong, the party any Labour-led government would need. National and NZ First have ruled out working with it.

What did the leaders say?

Luxon did not claim victory. Speaking to supporters at Auckland’s Viaduct Events Centre after midnight, he said National was once again the largest party in Parliament and had “a pathway to forming the next government”. But, he said, “I have to tell you right now it is too close to call.” Luxon said special votes, which he put at around 300,000, would decide the final result. He congratulated Labour leader Chris Hipkins on his campaign and Wong on her party’s entry to Parliament.

Hipkins told supporters at the Cosmopolitan Club in Upper Hutt: “Every vote matters, and every vote must now be counted.” He said the next Parliament would require parties to compromise and work together.

ACT leader David Seymour, whose party rose to 13 seats, said: “Frankly our job is to lock Labour out of government.” NZ First leader Winston Peters urged caution, telling journalists: “Don’t get carried away right here, right now.”

At Opportunity’s election-night function at Eden Park, Wong told supporters that “the Opportunity Party is going to make history tonight”. Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said it was “too early to count all of the chickens”, and argued the overhang showed the system had been gamed.

Does the government keep its majority?

On the preliminary count, yes. National, ACT and NZ First have 67 of 131 seats. Before the election they held 67 of the 122 seats then filled in a 123-seat Parliament: National 48, ACT 11 and NZ First 8.

National’s own seats fall from 48 to 42, and it wins no list seats, because its electorate wins already exceed its share of the party vote. ACT rises from 11 to 13 and NZ First from 8 to 12. Labour rises from 34 to 36 seats, the Greens from 15 to 16, and Te Pāti Māori from four to five.

The margin is thin. In 2023, the special votes cost National two seats and took away the majority National and ACT had on election night. A shift of that size in the party vote this time, with Parliament’s size unchanged, would leave the coalition short of 66.

Which electorates changed hands?

Several seats have moved on the preliminary count. In Nelson, which Labour’s Rachel Boyack held in 2023 by 29 votes after special votes were counted, National’s Blair Cameron leads her by 3.17 points.

Labour leads in three seats National won in 2023:

• Hutt South: Labour’s Ginny Andersen leads National’s Chris Bishop, who took the seat from her in 2023, by 2.25 points.
• Banks Peninsula: Labour’s Tracey McLellan leads National’s Vanessa Weenink by 5.07 points.
• Mt Roskill: Labour’s Michael Wood leads National’s Carlos Cheung, who took the seat from him in 2023, by 0.87 points, too close to call.

In Te Tai Tonga, won by Te Pāti Māori’s Tākuta Ferris in 2023 and now contested by him as an independent, Labour’s Mananui Ramsden leads the Greens’ Lisa Te Morenga by 10.71 points.

Which seats are still too close to call?

VNN’s results page marks an electorate as decided only when all of its voting places are counted and the leader is at least 1.5 points ahead. With counting complete, four seats fall inside that line:

• Wairarapa: National’s Mike Butterick leads Labour’s Kieran McAnulty by 0.34 points. McAnulty led for much of the night.
• Wellington Bays: Labour’s Craig Renney leads the Greens’ Julie Anne Genter by 0.34 points, after Genter led earlier in the count.
• Mt Roskill: Labour’s Michael Wood leads National’s Carlos Cheung by 0.87 points.
• Hamilton East: National’s Ryan Hamilton leads Labour’s Georgie Dansey by 1.47 points.

Just outside the line, Te Pāti Māori’s Aperahama Edwards leads the Greens’ Hūhana Lyndon by 1.57 points in Te Tai Tokerau, and National’s Lloyd Budd leads Labour’s Gary Payinda by 2.80 points in Whangārei.

Because National wins no list seats, each electorate it loses costs it a seat outright, but it also removes an overhang seat, so Parliament shrinks by one and the winning party’s total, set by its share of the party vote, does not change. On the preliminary figures, losing both Wairarapa and Hamilton East would leave the coalition on 65 of 129 seats, still a majority. Changes in the party vote from special votes, which move list seats between parties, are the larger risk to the coalition.

In Epsom, ACT leader David Seymour leads National’s Paul Goldsmith by 6.39 points, keeping ACT’s only electorate. Luxon holds Botany and Hipkins Remutaka comfortably.

What happens next?

The preliminary count is not the final result. Special votes are counted over the coming weeks, and the Electoral Commission will declare the official result on Friday 27 November. Candidates can then seek judicial recounts, and the four electorates still too close to call are the most likely to be recounted.

Any coalition agreement depends on the final numbers. In 2023, negotiations between National, ACT and NZ First ran for several weeks after election night, and Luxon was sworn in as Prime Minister on 27 November.

What does it mean for Australia?

New Zealand is one of Australia’s closest partners. The two countries have had a free-trade agreement, Closer Economic Relations, since 1983, and the Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement lets their citizens live and work in each other’s country. Since July 2023, New Zealanders who have lived in Australia for four years can apply directly for Australian citizenship.

Whoever forms the next government in Wellington will manage that relationship, along with trade and defence ties, with Canberra. About 3,650 party votes separate New Zealand’s two largest parties, and the final shape of that government will not be certain until the official result on 27 November.