Tasmanian women born in 1984 carry four times the skin cancer risk of those born in 1959, and the gap with men is closing

A woman born in Tasmania in 1984 has about four times the risk of squamous cell skin cancer that a woman born there in 1959 had at the same age. That single number, from a study released this week by Brisbane’s QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, sits at the centre of a pattern the researchers did not expect: across Australia and northern Europe, this skin cancer is climbing faster, generation by generation, among women than among men.

The study, published in the British Journal of Dermatology, used cancer registry records from 1989 to 2020 in seven places: Tasmania, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Scotland and the Netherlands.

What is squamous cell carcinoma?

Cutaneous SCC is a cancer of the skin’s outer layer, usually on skin that has had the most sun: the face, ears, neck, scalp, hands and forearms. It is far more common than melanoma and most cases are cured with surgery, but some spread beyond the skin and can cause serious illness or death. Because most places do not record it in cancer registries the way they record melanoma, it is much less studied.

What did the study find?

The team, led by Dr Catherine Olsen with Professor David Whiteman as senior author, compared how risk changed for people born in different years, using people born in 1959 as the baseline.

In five of the seven populations (Tasmania, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and the Netherlands) the increase across birth cohorts was substantially greater in women than in men. Finland and Scotland showed little difference between the sexes. The Tasmanian finding was the most striking: a rate ratio of 4.01 for women born in 1984 against those born in 1959.

Melanoma did not follow the same pattern. Its generational rise was broadly similar for men and women, and in some countries steeper for men.

In Tasmania, SCC overtakes melanoma as the more common of the two cancers from about age 42. In Finland and Norway that crossover comes at about 72.

Why might women’s risk be rising faster?

The researchers point to generations of change in how much sun people get, at work and at play, and in attitudes to tanning, outdoor recreation and clothing. Dr Olsen said the team was surprised by the female trend. Professor Whiteman said almost all SCCs are believed to be caused by UV from the sun, and that the findings call for more attention to prevention and monitoring.

The female rise began in people born before 1959, which the authors read as a long-running change in exposure rather than a recent habit. It also predates the spread of commercial tanning beds.

What does the study not show?

It is a population study, so it shows trends in groups, not why any one person got cancer, and it cannot prove cause. Registry quality and how often people see a doctor can differ between countries. The estimates for the youngest generations rest on relatively few cases and short follow-up, so the researchers caution against reading them as anyone’s lifetime risk.

And the absolute picture has not flipped: men still have higher rates of SCC than women.

Why does it matter in Australia?

Tasmania is the only Australian jurisdiction that routinely registers SCC (and basal cell carcinoma), so the country has no national count of its most common cancers. That is why a study of one small state carries weight nationally. The authors want SCC given more attention in prevention, screening and early detection, and sun protection practised across a whole lifetime, not just in childhood.

For readers the advice is the familiar summer list: protective clothing, shade and sunscreen. Anyone with a new, growing or non-healing spot on their skin should talk to their doctor.