Portugal shut every school for Storm Charles, then the storm split in two before it arrived

Portugal brought itself to a near standstill on Wednesday for a storm that, in the end, lost much of its strength at sea.

Classes were cancelled at roughly 8,000 schools nationwide, the first time in living memory that the country had shut its schools for a forecast storm. Airlines cancelled more than 200 flights into and out of Portugal, long-distance coaches were halted, rail and river services were cut or restricted, and one of the country’s biggest supermarket chains closed every store. The government ordered civil servants to work from home, shut non-essential public services, put the army on standby and told people to stay indoors.

Why did Portugal go so far?

Because it has been caught out before. The government was criticised for a slow response to storms in January and February, including Storm Kristin, and this time it moved before the weather did. Forecasters had warned of gusts of up to 140 km/h, heavy rain and rough seas.

What actually happened?

Storm Charles came ashore through the southern Algarve weaker than forecast. Portugal’s weather service, IPMA, said the storm’s centre split in two over the Atlantic. One of its meteorologists said the split “made all the difference”: the storm changed track in a way the models had not predicted, passed further south of Madeira than expected, and broke away from the jet stream that had been feeding it. Some red wind warnings were downgraded to orange, though strong winds were still expected as the two centres moved inland, one along the Alentejo coast south of Lisbon and the other towards central Portugal.

Civil Protection Commander Mario Silvestre said the country remained on high alert for flash floods, wind and rough seas, with 538 incidents recorded since midnight. Before reaching the mainland, the storm brought flooding and fallen trees to the Madeira islands, where one man was rescued after floodwater filled his garage. No casualties had been reported.

Was it already wet?

Yes, and that is the danger. Storm Bruna had been dropping heavy rain on Portugal and Spain since Sunday, leaving ground saturated before Charles arrived. Road tunnels in Lisbon were mostly closed on Wednesday, some streets flooded, and thousands of people lost power on Tuesday.

What about Spain?

Spain’s weather agency, AEMET, warned of serious or very serious impacts in the country’s south-west. In central Spain, more than 3,000 people in the town of Piedralaves remained evacuated after being moved out on Tuesday, because a local dam was at risk of overflowing.

What does it mean for travellers?

The Web Summit, one of the world’s largest technology conferences, which draws about 70,000 people to Lisbon, called off Wednesday’s events. Anyone flying into or out of Portugal or south-west Spain this week should check with their airline before going to the airport, as cancelled services can take days to clear.

Was closing everything too much?

It is the trade-off every government faces when it acts on a forecast: close too little and people are caught in the open; close too much and the storm may fizzle. Lisbon was planning for a severe storm until the system split in two over the ocean, a change in track the forecast models had not predicted. After the criticism earlier in the year, the government chose to act before the forecast was certain.