Taiwan says China’s carrier group is rehearsing how to keep America out, a week before Trump sits down with Xi

Speaking to reporters at Taiwan’s parliament, the Legislative Yuan, in Taipei on Tuesday, Mr Koo said China “has indeed conducted area denial drills in the Western Pacific with the Liaoning carrier group” and other naval formations.

He said the activity would “undermine peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region”, and that Taiwan’s forces would continuously monitor it and respond appropriately.

China’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Last month it said the Liaoning’s training in the Western Pacific was an annual routine to test long-range, open-ocean combat capabilities, and was not aimed at any country. The Chinese navy announced on 14 October that it had sent the carrier group into the Western Pacific.

What is “area denial”, and why does Taiwan care?

In military planning, anti-access and area-denial means making a stretch of ocean too dangerous for an opponent to enter. For Taiwan, the threat is specific: if Beijing attacked, the island would depend on the US, and possibly Japan and other allies, coming to help. A Chinese carrier group operating east of Taiwan, in the Western Pacific, sits across the routes that help would take.

That is why Taipei watches where the Liaoning goes so closely. Drills on the Pacific side are a rehearsal for the second half of a war, not the first.

How big is this?

Taiwan has been raising the alarm for more than a week. National Security Council Secretary-General Joseph Wu posted on X last week that more than 100 Chinese naval and coast guard ships were operating off Taiwan, in the South China Sea and into the Pacific. Taiwan’s defence ministry also reported a large rise in Chinese air force activity around the island, without giving a figure.

China has not declared any of it an exercise. Large drills around Taiwan in recent years have been announced with names and maps. This one has none, which leaves Beijing free to call it routine while the ships remain at sea.

Why now?

The timing is hard to miss. Mr Trump is due in Shenzhen next week for the APEC leaders’ summit, where he is expected to meet Mr Xi, and he has said he wants to sit down with both Mr Xi and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Taiwan holds local elections on 28 November.

The Group of Seven foreign ministers, meeting in Paris on Monday, restated their opposition to any attempt to change the status quo by force or coercion, including across the Taiwan Strait. Beijing regards Taiwan as its territory and has long rejected such statements as interference in its affairs.

What does it mean for Australia?

The Western Pacific and the South China Sea carry much of Australia’s trade with north Asia, its biggest export market, and the Australian Defence Force regularly sails through the region. Any crisis around Taiwan would quickly become a question for Canberra about shipping, markets and its alliance with the US. For now, Tuesday’s warning is a signal to watch the carrier’s course over the coming days, particularly whether it heads north towards Japan.